Thursday, November 5, 2015

What Stands In Our Way?

With all time highs now somewhat shockingly in sight, we wanted to quickly assess what might stand in the way of the market printing new highs before year-end. And then counter that with what could propel it even higher.

Looking at the S&P 500:
  • There stands to be lots of resistance in the 2135 to 2150 area.  We know that the index's all-time high sits at 2,134.72.  Additionally, the S&P will be facing what Kimble Charting Solutions termed as "dual resistance" in this area because the 161.8% Fib extension of the 2009 lows and 2007 market peak that sits at 2,150.

  • Yet favoring a push higher is the monthly chart of the S&P.  After spending just a single month below its 12-month moving average, the index's monthly chart was able to bust back above this line with the October close of 2,079.36.  As you can see in the chart below that dates back to 1990, when the S&P has moved back above the 12-month MA line it has tended to result in impressive gains ahead.

Turning to the Nasdaq:
  • The chart below tells two pretty significant stories.  One, and this may help soothe the S&P resistance worry mentioned above, the Nasdaq blew through its 2007 top to 2009 bottom 161.8% extension line and made it look utterly meaningless in the process.
  • Two, the index is set to again challenge it's early-2000 tech bubble highs.  This area proved insurmountable the first time around and we'll see how things respond in round 2.

Ryan Worch is the Managing Director of Worch Capital LLC. Worch Capital LLC is the general partner of a long/short equity strategy that operates with a directional bias and while emphasizing capital preservation at all times.

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